By: Rasheed Ayotunde Jimoh

If the 1.5 million-vote projection was acceptable when former Governor Gboyega Oyetola made the promise in 2023, why is it suddenly being presented as evidence of a questionable political strategy when Dr. Ajibola Basiru repeats it? Whether it works or not now depends on the electorates.

Let us put the facts in perspective. In 2022, Oyetola polled 375,027 votes in the Osun governorship election, while the PDP’s Ademola Adeleke secured 403,371 votes. Yet, in 2023, the projection of 1.5 million votes for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu from Osun was considered a legitimate political ambition.

Remember that the same PDP that defeated the APC in 2022 was campaigning against Tinubu in 2023. Despite that political reality, the ambitious vote projection was not treated as evidence of a sinister agenda.

Today, the circumstances have changed. Ademola Adeleke, a governor from another political party is now campaigning for President Tinubu. If he is expressing confidence in the possibility of delivering such a number, why should anyone reasonably criticise the APC National Secretary for echoing the same projection? Should the secretary have told the governor that his principal, Mr. President doesn’t need such vote?

Is the problem really the 1.5 million votes, or is it the person repeating the projection?

There is another troubling dimension to this debate. Some people appear so determined to blame certain national officers of the APC for the party’s defeat in the August 15 governorship election that they conveniently ignore the local factors, political peculiarities and circumstances that contributed to the outcome.

Reducing a complex electoral defeat to the activities of a few individuals, without examining the broader political realities, is not serious analysis. It is an exercise in convenient blame-shifting.

What is even more amusing is the impression that some political minions are now threatening the President with the prospect of electoral defeat if their preferred arrangements or interests are not accommodated.

I do not know whether these individuals realise that if there is no President, there may be no ministerial position to occupy either. If their commitment to President Tinubu is genuine, they should be more concerned about building the support required for his re-election than issuing veiled threats or creating unnecessary divisions within the party.

If anyone wishes to work against the President, that is their political choice. But they should do so openly and peacefully, rather than resorting to insinuations, intimidation or attempts to discredit people who are simply doing their jobs.

Dr. Ajibola Basiru cannot continue to be made to pay for the alleged sins of hundreds of people. If there are grievances against the APC’s national leadership, let those grievances be addressed individually and on their merits. Political accountability must not become a convenient weapon for settling scores with one person.

You cannot excuse one person for yesterday’s failures and condemn another for repeating the same political ambition today. You cannot celebrate a projection when it comes from your preferred political figure and ridicule it when it comes from someone you dislike. That is not consistency. It is double standards.

President Tinubu deserves loyalty, not political blackmail. The APC deserves honest analysis, not convenient scapegoats. And Dr. Ajibola Basiru deserves the same standard of fairness applied to everyone else.

If 1.5 million votes was a legitimate ambition yesterday, let those questioning it today explain what has fundamentally changed, beyond the identity of the person repeating it.

The 2027 election should be about building support for the President, not manufacturing enemies within his own political family.

You cannot claim to be protecting Tinubu while creating the very divisions that could weaken his support. Let the drama continue.